The “Forever Home” Trap: Why Buying for 5 Years Is Smarter Than 20
Many buyers enter the market believing they need to find a forever home—a property that will serve every stage of life for decades to come. While that idea sounds responsible, it often does more harm than good.
In today’s market, especially across Southern California, buying with a five-year horizon is often a smarter, more flexible strategy than trying to solve the next twenty years all at once.
How Long Do People Actually Stay in Their Homes?
Before talking strategy, it’s worth grounding this discussion in data.
According to Redfin, the median length of homeownership in California is approximately 19 years, the longest of any state in the country.
You can read the full analysis here:
👉 https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowner-tenure-california-longest/
Nationally, the average tenure is much shorter—roughly 11–12 years.
That gap matters, but it’s often misunderstood.
Median tenure is not a plan. It’s an outcome that reflects:
Rising home prices
Lower mobility
Fewer people are able (or willing) to move
Most buyers don’t intend to stay in a home for 20 years—they simply remain because circumstances evolve more slowly than expected.
Why the “Forever Home” Mindset Can Backfire
When buyers shop for a home that must work perfectly for decades, a few things tend to happen:
Decision-making slows or stalls
Budgets get stretched to uncomfortable levels
Buyers overpay for features they may never use
Compromises get postponed instead of prioritized
Ironically, trying to plan for everything often leads to less satisfaction, not more.
A five-year mindset introduces clarity.
Buy for the Life You’re Living Now
Buying with a realistic horizon forces honest questions:
If You Have (or Plan to Have) Children
School districts matter—unless a private school is a firm plan
Commute patterns and daily logistics matter more than finishes
Flexibility for growth matters more than perfection
If You Don’t
Walkability, dining, and neighborhood character carry more weight
Proximity to cultural amenities becomes a quality-of-life driver
Floor plans that adapt easily tend to hold value better
The goal isn’t to predict the future perfectly—it’s to avoid buying a home that only works in a hypothetical version of your life.
Thinking Ahead Without Overthinking
A five-year mindset doesn’t mean ignoring the future. It means planning for optional outcomes.
Smart buyers consider:
Resale viability: Would someone else reasonably want this home?
Rental potential: Could this property function as a rental if plans change?
Price discipline: If you’re dramatically overpaying today, will the market realistically catch up?
This is especially important with homes that need work.
If the purchase price plus renovations pushes the total investment well beyond what the neighborhood historically supports, you risk creating an over-built scenario—where the home is more expensive than the market will reward within a reasonable time frame.
How Homes Actually Appreciate Over Time
Homes generally rise in value due to:
Normal inflation
Wage growth
Scarcity of land
Long-term demand
But appreciation is not uniform.
Neighborhoods tend to outperform when there are real catalysts for change.
Real-World Examples in Southern California
Glendora: The expansion of the Metro Gold Line (A Line) has materially changed how buyers evaluate the area, improving access and long-term appeal.
Inglewood: Major investments like SoFi Stadium and surrounding development dramatically altered demand, perception, and home values over time.
South Los Angeles: The Lucas Museum and broader cultural and infrastructure investments continue to reshape how buyers view long-term potential.
These kinds of developments don’t guarantee appreciation—but they provide structural reasons for demand to grow.
Absent catalysts like these, markets tend to appreciate steadily, not explosively.
Why Five Years Is a Smart Framework
Buying with a five-year horizon:
Keeps budgets grounded
Preserves flexibility
Reduces emotional pressure
Encourages better pricing discipline
Aligns expectations with real life
Many buyers who plan for five years stay longer. Others don’t—and that’s fine. The difference is they bought with optionality, not fear.
The Takeaway
You don’t need to buy a forever home.
You need to buy a home that:
Works for your life today
Fits comfortably within your financial reality
Makes sense if you sell—or rent—down the road
It isn’t dependent on perfect future conditions to succeed
In today’s market, clarity beats permanence.
Flexibility beats prediction.
And buyers who understand that tend to make better decisions—regardless of where the market goes next.
Michael Robleto
PreWar & MidCentury Specialist
Compass
213-595-4720
michael.robleto@compass.com
About The Author
Michael Robleto is a Los Angeles–based REALTOR® specializing in historic, pre-war, and mid-century residential properties, with a focus on Pasadena, Altadena, and Eastside neighborhoods, including Los Feliz, Silver Lake, Eagle Rock, and Mount Washington.
Known for his deep understanding of older homes and residential construction, Michael helps clients navigate the complexities of historic properties—from aging mechanical systems to long-term ownership considerations. His approach combines data-driven guidance with thoughtful, modern marketing, allowing clients to make informed decisions in changing markets.
A California native and the son of a contractor, Michael grew up in an older bungalow and has spent more than two decades studying Southern California’s residential architecture. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Pasadena Heritage and writes about homeownership strategy, architecture, and market dynamics through his Bungalow Agent platform.
